- November 19, 2023
- Posted by: [email protected]
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Despite Bitcoin’s substantial 120% price surge throughout the year, the expected fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment commonly associated with a bull market has yet to materialize. Analysis of on-chain transaction data by Look Into Bitcoin reveals a distinctive lack of participation from “younger” Bitcoin, suggesting that significant speculative interest and substantial returns are yet to flood the network.
Bitcoin is currently trading near 18-month highs, surpassing its bear market trading range and overcoming several key resistance levels. While the number of smaller wallets is increasing, there hasn’t been a significant resurgence of speculators – those holding BTC for short-term gains.
Philip Swift, the creator of Look Into Bitcoin, has pointed to the Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL waves) metric as evidence of the absence of FOMO. RHODL waves analyze Bitcoin’s supply based on age groups and their movement on-chain concerning the price at the time of the last transaction. The data indicates that coins moving on-chain in the warmer color low timeframe waves are only beginning to increase, signaling a lack of FOMO and emphasizing that it’s still early in the current market cycle.
Digging deeper into Bitcoin’s supply “age bands,” Onchained, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s on-chain analytics platform, highlighted the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator. NUPL assesses the profitability of stored coins within different cohorts. Notably, those who increased their BTC exposure before the 2021 all-time highs find themselves underwater, as indicated by NUPL.
The NUPL data reveals a crucial upcoming threshold for bull market hodlers. Onchained noted that all Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands currently show profitability, except for holders with bitcoins held for 18 months to 3 years. This aligns with their entry during the rally to $67,000, and their NUPL nearing the profitability benchmark of 0 suggests a potential break-even point if Bitcoin continues its rally beyond $39,000.
According to CryptoQuant, only 11.6% of the overall proportion of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are currently at a loss, indicating that the majority of Bitcoin holders are in a profitable position. Despite the absence of widespread FOMO, this data suggests that the overall market sentiment remains positive and that the cryptocurrency may be poised for further upward momentum.
