- June 23, 2024
- Posted by: [email protected]
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Bitcoin’s price prediction has garnered significant attention as BTC recently dropped to its lowest level in a month, currently trading at $64,295. This decline is primarily attributed to substantial net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have amounted to $139.88 million, exerting considerable downward pressure on BTC prices.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows of $139.88 million over five consecutive days. Notably, Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC saw significant outflows of $53 million and $51 million, respectively. In contrast, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $1 million. These outflows have coincided with a drop in total trading volume for these ETFs from $1.7 billion to $1.16 billion over the past week. The reduction in trading volumes and persistent outflows are key factors contributing to the recent dip in Bitcoin prices.
In the broader market, Australia’s ASX has listed its first Bitcoin ETF, marking a significant development in the adoption of Bitcoin investment products. Meanwhile, US issuers are gearing up to launch spot Ethereum funds, with many resubmitting their applications to the SEC. These developments indicate growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency investment products, which might provide some support to Bitcoin prices despite the current downward trend.
Recent US economic data has been underwhelming, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin easing its policies. This potential policy shift could help mitigate Bitcoin’s losses. Market participants are now anticipating a possible interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting, despite the central bank’s previously hawkish stance.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that it might take one to two years to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasized the Fed’s readiness to address policy issues with available tools and the importance of responding to economic data. Key economic data points include a slight rise in unemployment benefits to 238,000 for the week ending June 15, a 5.2% decrease in housing starts in May, and a 2.9% drop in building permits. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 1.3 in June, while the USD Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 and the Services PMI increased to 55.1. Existing home sales slightly exceeded forecasts at 4.11 million.
MicroStrategy’s significant increase in its Bitcoin holdings is a notable development. The company acquired 11,931 bitcoins for $786 million between April 27 and June 19, 2024. This acquisition, funded by a successful private offering of convertible senior notes, highlights MicroStrategy’s continued commitment to Bitcoin as a central element of its financial strategy. MicroStrategy now holds a total of 226,331 bitcoins valued at $8.33 billion, with an average acquisition cost of approximately $36,798 per bitcoin. This substantial purchase by a major institutional player underscores confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and may help stabilize BTC prices amidst market fluctuations.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $64,295, showing a slight increase of 0.02%. The key pivot point is set at $64,650, which will play a crucial role in determining the next directional move. The closing of candles below this level suggests a bearish Bitcoin price prediction.
Immediate resistance levels are observed at $65,139, $65,568, and $65,581, indicating potential selling pressure if Bitcoin attempts to rise. On the downside, immediate support is found at $64,290, with further support levels at $63,437 and $62,870, which could serve as potential buying opportunities should the price decline.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 42.55, indicating a neutral trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $65,568, suggesting a bearish outlook as the current price is below this average. The violation of the symmetrical triangle pattern also suggests an increased likelihood of a selling trend.
Based on the technical indicators and current price action, a sell position is recommended below $64,650 to capitalize on the anticipated downward movement. Traders should closely monitor resistance and support levels to make informed decisions. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by the price being below the 50-day EMA and the neutral RSI. A sell strategy below $64,650 could be beneficial given the current market conditions.
While Bitcoin faces downward pressure due to ETF outflows and reduced trading volumes, institutional confidence and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts might provide some support. Traders should remain vigilant and watch key levels to navigate the current market environment effectively.
