- June 15, 2024
- Posted by: [email protected]
- Category:
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a tumultuous period, with its price dropping to $66,000 amidst significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This downward trend has been exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s revised rate-cut projections and mixed signals from recent economic data. As investors navigate market uncertainty and shifting expectations, the crucial question arises: Is the sell-off over, or could Bitcoin prices face further declines?
Bitcoin’s recent volatility, with a drop below $66,300, has led to substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. These outflows total $226.21 million, with Fidelity seeing the largest withdrawals at $106 million, while BlackRock experienced an inflow of $18 million. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs manage approximately $58 billion, representing 4.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Investors should closely monitor several factors. Ongoing volatility in Bitcoin price trends may continue to influence investor sentiment. ETF outflows reflect reduced demand from institutional investors, which could negatively impact Bitcoin prices. Additionally, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs could positively affect Bitcoin prices.
Recent U.S. economic data reveals mixed signals. The Producer Price Index (PPI) grew less than expected in May, with a 2.2% annual increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged, easing yearly inflation to 3.3%. Initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 last week. In response, the Federal Reserve has adjusted its 2024 rate-cut projections to one, down from the previously anticipated three. This change is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially posing challenges for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
However, softer inflation figures suggest the possibility of earlier-than-expected rate cuts, which could influence investor behavior and affect financial markets across various asset classes. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a rising probability of the first rate cut occurring in September. The interplay between the Fed’s revised rate-cut expectations and softer inflation data could weaken Bitcoin prices due to reduced demand amidst a stronger U.S. dollar and a potential easing of borrowing costs.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within a wide trading range, with resistance at $67,750 and support around $66,000, signaling a neutral Bitcoin price prediction. A breakout from this range could trigger significant market movements. Key technical levels to watch include the pivot point at $67,750, immediate resistance at $68,600, and next resistance at $70,000. Immediate support is located at $66,200, with the next support level at $65,200.
On the 4-hour timeframe, both the 50-day EMA, currently at $68,400, and the RSI, at 43, suggest a neutral to bearish bias. A sell position could be considered below $67,750, with a potential target of $65,200 upon a break below $66,000. Conversely, a break above $67,750 could fuel further bullish momentum.
